EF Private Play Parlay Now Available!!

Big Week Ahead Opt In Now!!!



Wednesday, November 18, 2009

November Madness

The smell of processed turkey is in the air and Tim Floyd has his eye on this kid. This can only mean one thing: college hoops season is upon us.

The recreational bettor loves placing early season wagers on the holy grail of sports betting: the NCAA tournament. Last year's favorites, UNC, offered little value to futures players opening at 3-1 to win it all. Despite a minor mid-season conference hiccup, the odds on the Tar Heels never increased beyond 3.5-1 all season.

Younger squads opening with good odds (Wake Forest 50-1, Connecticut 20-1, Pittsburgh 25-1) all took turns as the regular season #1 but couldn't hold the throne for longer than two weeks. When the smoke settled in late March, the most intriguing Final Four team was undoubtedly Villanova (opened at 75-1). Carolina blue made quick work of the Wildcats and Tom Izzo's Spartans (20-1 preseason), cruising to lopsided double digit victories in both games.

So what can we learn from last season handicapping this season's futures?

Recent history suggests the #1 seed is king. Since 2000, a #1 seed has cut down the nets 7 out of the last 10 years. The exceptions were one #2 seed (UConn in '04) and two #3 seeds (Melo's Syracuse in '03 and Florida in '06). The last three national champions have been #1 seeds (UNC, '08 Kansas, '07 Florida).

This tells us the cinderellas and dark horses make occasional deep tourney runs but can't be trusted to win it all. There might be value in capping individual matchups during the tourney, but that's about it.

This leaves us with one major problem: how can we predict who's going to be the #1 seeds at the end of the season? This isn't the perfect formula, but I think their are three key ingredients: non conference SOS (strength of schedule), conference prestige, and star power.

Let's put some early favorites up to the formula test.

Kansas (Preseason poll ranking #1, SOS #48, Conference Ranking #3)
Odds to win 3-1 (Live College basketball odds)
At 3-1, it's impossible to make an argument for any team in today's climate of college hoops. This team has all the goods to make to Indianapolis: a strong anchor in the post (Cole Aldrich) and a senior playmaker to they can feed the ball to in crunch time (Sherron Collins). They have the experience, a tough SOS, and a seasoned tournament head coach. Still, the likelihood of this squad to to hoist the John Wooden trophy compared to last year's 3-1 UNC squad are significantly smaller. Stay away unless you can find better odds.
Pick value (1-10) - 4

Michigan State (Preseason poll ranking #2, SOS #29, Conference Ranking #2)
Odds to win 10-1
10-1 is about right. The team is led by an explosive backcourt (Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers) that can spark a ten-point run in the blink of an eye. It's tourney tested and it's head coach (Tom Izzo) is arguably the best postseason coach this decade. The main concern is the frontcourt is undersized and young. While sophomores Draymond Green and Delvin Roe stepped up big during State's runner-up tourney finish last season, they are still very raw offensively (3.3 and 5.6 ppg last season, respectively). This team lives and dies by it's guard play and guard oriented teams traditionally struggle to bring home the bread in the tournament. Still, it's hard not to believe Izzo won't find a way to make it work come march.
Pick value - 7

Kentucky (Preseason poll ranking #5, SOS #94, Conference Ranking #6
Odds to win 6-1
Hands down the most controversial pick out there. Three of Ronald Mcdonald's very own diaper dandies are expected to start (PG John Wall, SG Eric Bledsoe, and C Demarcus Cousins). The virtuoso recruiter (John Calipari) switched horses in midstream, dodging an impending NCAA investigation to come to UK. None of this can answer the real question nagging wildcat backers: is this team really a contender?

There's no question Calipari can develop freshmen talent (see Dajuan Wagner, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans). He does such a good job with first-year players they keep leaving him for the NBA after one go-around. But final four runs require more than just young legs: you need balance, depth, and team chemistry. There's simply no way to tell if these team will develop these key ingredients. If Jodie Meeks had decided to stick around for his senior season, I could give this pick the thumbs up.
Pick value- 3

Duke (Preseason poll #12, SOS #119, Conference Ranking #1)
Odds 11-1
The Dukies have fallen on hard times, failing to advance to the elite eight for the fifth straight season. The ACC finally has some competition as the premier conference this season with strong, balanced arguments coming from both the Big Ten and Pac-10.
Still, counting out the Blue Devils is a mistake. There are engraved adages in sports betting: don't bet against Tiger, Peyton, Belichick/Brady. Coach K absolutely deserves to be in this conversation. SF Kyle Singler is the go-to-guy again this season with the usual lights out 3-point shooting cast led by senior PG Jon Scheyer. This is an experienced and hungry team you can expect to rack up wins early before being tested in conference play. I wouldn't be surprised if they wrestle away the ACC title from the Tar Heels this season and secure the ACC's annual guaranteed #1 seed.
Pick value - 5

Teams worth taking a look (35-1 Washington, 35-1 California , 20-1 Purdue, 20-1 Tennessee, 15-1 Louisville)

Thanks, but no thanks (65-1 Michigan, 18-1 West Virginia, 12-1 Villanova, 8-1 UNC)

The "I feel like gambling" picks (55-1 Maryland, 50-1 Wake Forest, 50-1 Butler, 65-1 Clemson)

For all the best NCAA Basketball Picks check out Cooper's Sports Picks.


Coll Hoops Lock

Private Play


Buy Now

Coops Parlay

Holiday Special


Buy Now



WagerWeb offers Coopers Pick clients an extra 1/2 point for most betting events.
SBG Global
SBG's online wagering sportsbook sets industry standards for sports betting.
Sports Betting
Sports Betting offers online sports betting from a single account.
OddsMaker is a sportsbook offering 100% bonuses for Sports Betting Picks

Whether you bet for fun or to make money at the sportsbook coopers pick can help you.


NBA Basketball
Professional Football
College Football
College Basketball
Major League Baseball
Professional Hockey
Mixed Martial Arts


Basketball blog for march madness and college hoops with picks, handicapping news, brackets, suicide pools, spreads, and more fun hoops action.

Powered by Blogger.

NFL lines provided by IN S PIN